Who is on the List?

OK, its been a while. I'm back to predict who be on Mitchell's list which is likely to be announced tomorrow afternoon. There are rumored to be over 50 players on the list who have used performance enhancing drugs at some point in the last 5-6 years.

So here's who I think will likely turn up on the list:

No doubters:
Pudge Rodriguez
Miguel Tejada
Sammy Sosa*
Marc McGwire*
Barry Bonds
Troy Glaus+
Jason Giambi+
Gary Sheffield+
Bret Boone*
Matt Williams

Quite Possibles:
Johnny Damon
Roger Clemens
David Ortiz
Adrian Beltre
Tony Batista
Carlos Delgado
Tim Salmon*
Mike Piazza
Frank Thomas
Jose Valentin
Dmitri Young
Travis Hafner
Kevin Mench

Outside Shots:
Aubrey Huff
Edgar Martinez
Alex Rodriguez
Manny Ramirez
Jason Varitek
Jacque Jones
Paul Konerko
Mark Teixeira

There are quite a few players that we already know have taken steroids but don't have a high enough profile for me to list (Grimsley, etc). But I fully expect at least 25-50% of the above players to turn up in tomorrow's list.

* - These players may have taken steroids but the timeframe of their use may fall outside of Mitchell's investigation.
+ - These players we already have evidence of possible steroid use so they may not constitute part of the 50+ names on Mitchell's report, although I expect them to.

2007 MLB Playoff Predictions

Time for my crappy predictions:

ALDS:
New York Yankees (3)
over
Cleveland Indians (1)

Boston Red Sox (3)
over
Los Angeles Angels (2)

NLDS:
Philadelphia Phillies (3)
over
Colorado Rockies (2)

Arizona Diamondbacks (3)
over
Chicago Cubs (1)

ALCS:
New York Yankees (4)
over
Boston Red Sox (1)

NLCS:
Arizona Diamondbacks (4)
over
Philadelphia Phillies (2)

World Series:
New York Yankees (4)
over
Arizona Diamondbacks (2)


I took very little time thinking about these picks.

Can A-Rod Hit 61?

Alex Rodriguez is, without question, having his best season as a New York Yankee. The MVP is locked up and it looks like the Yankees will be playing October baseball, which is all that really matters.

But, sitting on 52 home runs on September 12 with 18 games left to play, one can’t help but think about Maris’ record. While such an accomplishment would be of little concern to those of us who simply want the team to be riding up the Canyon of Heroes to city hall on floats come early November, it would be a remarkable feat nonetheless.

But is it possible?

The way A-Rod has been hitting the ball out of the park lately, 10 home runs in 18 games is not a stretch by any means. Nine home runs to tie Maris or eight to match the Babe are both serious possibilities, as well. Not incredibly likely, but both a possibility, at least. Assuming an average 4.5 PA a game, A-Rod will have 81 PA left in the season. He will need to homer in 10% of those remaining PA to hit around 8 more home runs. Predicting a player’s chance to hit a home run at any given time is downright impossible. But let’s look at how the next two and a half weeks set up in terms of A-Rod’s splits.

The Yankees have six more games against the Blue Jays, the next two in Rogers Centre over the next two days, and four at Yankee Stadium; six against the Orioles, the first three at home and the last three to close out the season in Camden Yards; three at Boston, and three in Tampa Bay.

Here are Alex’s home run numbers per plate appearance in each of the ballparks:

SkyDome - 30/334 (9%)
Camden Yards - 20/336 (6%)
Fenway Park - 19/336 (6%)
Tropicana Field - 14/280 (5%)
Yankee Stadium - 103/1550 (7%)

The Yankees have 11 away games and 7 home games left. Alex in his career has a slightly better HR/PA at home than away: 6.2% to 5.9%. This season, his home/away HR split is at an even 26/26. I’m not going to bother looking at A-Rod’s overall career HR numbers against the remaining teams since a lot of the pitchers he’s faced are no longer on those individual clubs. And, since we are dealing with home runs, opposing defenses are not really a factor as they would be with other offensive stats. However, let’s take a look at his HR numbers against the remaining current pitching staffs.

Toronto - 7/177 (4%); Towers 3, Burnett 2, Marcum 1, Downs 1
Boston - 13/220 (6%); Wakefield 6, Schilling 4, Beckett 1, Timlin 1, Papelbon 1
Baltimore - 6/143 (4%); Cabrera 2, Zambrano 1, Bradford 1, Bell 1, Walker 1
Tampa Bay - 8/129 (6%); Witasick 2, Shields 1, Glover 1, Reyes 1, Hammel 1, Jackson 1, Salas 1

Finally, to at least tie Babe Ruth, A-Rod will have to hit 8 more home runs. As we have seen this season, A-Rod can go on an absolute home run rampage at any time. So 8 in 18 games is not an impossibility if he catches fire again (or even if he doesn’t, by his standards). Here’s a look at a few great consecutive 18 game stretches from Alex in 2007 in terms of HR/PA:

April 2 - April 23: 14/86 (16%)
June 5 - June 24: 8/82 (10%)
August 4 - August 24: 8/82 (10%)
August 21 - September 9: 12/76 (16%)

Can he do it? Sure. Will he? It’s not likely. Judging by the splits, I would guess that Alex hits another 5 or 6 home runs, ending up at around 57 for the season. Though shy of the record, that’s a monster total, especially for a righty in Yankee Stadium. I’m sure many fans are now rooting for him to be the first Yankee to break Maris’ record. Most would consider him the first player to break or tie the record legitimately. I would. Alex is completely within the good graces of Yankee fans these days; a complete turnaround from last season. He could strangle a puppy during the 7th inning stretch while giving the American flag the finger and the fans would still worship him.

There is very little more A-Rod can do at this point to increase his bargaining power for this off-season. Hitting 60+ homers won’t hurt. Actually, I would think that tying or breaking the Babe’s home run record, or even Maris’ record, might actually persuade him to continue playing in pinstripes. After all, he’s pretty much guaranteed a plaque out in Monument Park. To hold the Yankees’ HR record would be yet another incredible feat and one which I would be thrilled to see him accomplish. But should he fall short, it will not deter in any way from the ridiculous season he is having. Hopefully, it doesn’t end on September 30th.

(Also posted on RLYW)

Wilton on Rivera

Baseball Injury Report

Rick Wilton of The Hardball Times notes that Rivera has allowed "at least one hit in seven of the outings" and that he is "not the lights out, 1-2-3 type closer he used to be."
While this might be true, having watched all of those appearances I can tell you that many of those hits are typical broken bat bloops. While he might not be missing bats as much as before, he's not exactly giving up hard line drives in every appearance.

Alex Rodriguez wants to carry Yankees in October

Good.

PLAYOFF PROBLEM

I'm more worried about securing ap layoff spot first. But this could be a factor if they do.

Sheffield Out

Sheffield will miss the upcoming series against the Yankees this weekend. That's good news for a team that just lost 2 of 3 from the Angels to start its road trip. Taking 3 of 4 would set them right back on track.

Joba is Here

Joba Chamberlain has been called up to the Majors. Exciting time for Yankee fans with Hughes and Chamberlain on the squad.

Let's see if he gets in the game tonight.

Fuzzy math

Tim Kurkjian just said something on Baseball Tonight that made my hair hurt. He was relating a story about Ichiro Suzuki in which he was talking to Bobby Valentine about how great Ichiro was at some point a few years back. Bobby apparently told Tim that Ichiro can multiply four digit numbers in his head. Tim went on to say that this is why, according to Bobby, Ichiro is such a great ball player; because he is able to calculate angles on getting to line drives. Um, what? That's the most idiotic thing I've ever heard. I award you no points and may God have mercy on your soul.
Maybe the reason Jake Peavy is such a great pitcher is because he's doing square roots in his head during his delivery.
Now, Tim was simply relaying to the viewers and his Baseball Tonight colleagues what Bobby told him. But he seems to have espoused this view as well. I mean, its not like he came out and said this was the most nonsensical thing he's ever heard. In fact, he found enough worth in it to say it on television.

No News

I really haven't been able to maintain the blog due to studying for the bar (exhausting!). However, I have been liveblogging Yankee games over at RLYW, which is another reason I've been unable to spend time here. Trust me, it has nothing to do with the rocky season so far. I have plenty to say about it just little time to say it here.
As soon as the bar exam is out of my life, I'll be back updating this blog.

Tavarez and a Foreign Substance?

After watching the Yankees get embarrassed by Tavarez last night, I couldn't help thinking about something I noticed all game. After every single pitch, Tavarez would push his hat back on his head, wipe his hand on his forehead, and then touch the underside of his cap in one very specific spot. It never failed.
Now, its not likely that he was using a foreign substance to dominate the Yankees since most of the Yankee hitters need no help in being dominated. However, it was a bit suspicious to see him continually touch his cap after every pitch in a very specific spot, especially since Tavarez's pitches were moving a lot and that he depends on a sinker to be successful.
At the end of the game, you could also see a noticeable mark on the right side of his brim were he was touching after every pitch. More than likely, it was just residue from sweat. But it makes you wonder, especially considering he's really not that good of a pitcher.

Another Walk on 3 Balls?

I'm fairly certain that Gerald Laird of the Texas Rangers was given first base with only 3 balls in the seventh inning of last night's game at Yankee Stadium. I noticed it because I thought there were only 2 balls when Pettitte delivered what I thought was Ball 3. Then I thought I noticed Pettitte mouth "3 balls?" to the umpire at home but no one else seemed to make a stink about it. I guess Andy and I were mistaken.
But I'll check the Yankee rewind later tonight to see.
If homeplate ump Chris Guccione did indeed grant Laird first on only 3 balls it would be the second time that a player has received a base on balls with only three balls in the last 10 days. Albert Pujols was granted first on three balls by umpire Dan Iassogna back on May 1st.

Igawa to the Rescue

Igawa comes to Yankees‘ rescue vs. BoSox

I've been busy with finals lately so the blog has been put on the back burner. But it was nice to see the losing streak come to an end.

In other news, the Yankees say they are not for sale.

Chase is On

Congratulations to Chase Wright on getting his first career win in the Majors. Its a good sign for the Yankees that they could plug in a farm hand and get a win.
However, you're only as good as your next day's starting pitcher. And tonight, its Igawa. He pitched better in his second start but the jury is still out on his worth. I really hope he can put together a nice game tonight against an offense-heavy team in the Indians. I won't hold my breath, however.

More Hughes News

Yankees' prospect Hughes doesn't let hype bother him

"He's been proclaimed the savior of a pitching staff in dire need of some youth, the next sure thing in cleats. He's become a household name in the City that Never Sleeps, a reputation no doubt built by constant appearances in the New York tabloids (thankfully, he's managed to avoid the gossip pages).
Is all this hype justified for a 20-year-old who's yet to throw a pitch in pinstripes? Before we blaze a trail to Cooperstown for Philip Hughes, keep this in mind, he still puts his pants on one leg at a time, just like the rest of the universe."

Yanks Win in Extras in Oakland

Thank you.

Take THAT!

A-Rod comes up big to bail out Yankees

NEW YORK - The Yankees trailed by a run with two outs in the bottom of the ninth yesterday and had nobody on base. Three players had to reach safely for Alex Rodriguez to come to the plate, yet he was sure that he would.

"Somehow I knew it was going to come down to me,'' he said. "Even with two outs and nobody on. I always end up in the middle of something one way or another.''

PhD Predicts 110 Wins for Yankees

Mets vs. Yankees in 2007 World Series?

"The New York Mets should expect to win about 90 games in 2007 and the Yankees a whopping 110 games to lead their divisions, said Bruce Bukiet, PhD, an associate professor of mathematical sciences at New Jersey Institute of Technology. Bukiet, who is also an associate dean of the school’s College of Science and Liberal Arts offers the expectations for the number of games each major league baseball team should win based on his mathematical model, developed in 2000."

Interesting. I didn't know their was a New Jersey Institute of Technology.

The ProBatter Pitching Simulator

Bronx Bombers Acquire New Systems for Use at Yankee Stadium and Throughout Their Minor League System

MILFORD, CT -- (MARKET WIRE) -- April 04, 2007 -- ProBatter Sports has completed a landmark deal with the New York Yankees for the purchase of three new ProBatter PX2 pitching simulators. Long known for their commitment to producing a winning team and doing everything possible to excel, the 26-time world champion Bronx Bombers have acquired the breakthrough training systems for use at their Yankee Stadium home, as well as their minor league facilities in Tampa and Scranton.

ProBatter Professional Baseball simulators utilize patented technology to nearly perfectly duplicate the experience of facing live pitching. The PX2 was recently introduced and represents a refinement in the basic ProBatter design, taking advantage of the most recent advancements in hardware and software development.

Yanks Win Opener; Swindal Attends

It wasn't the prettiest of games but the Yankees got the W.
I'm very excited for Pettitte's return to pinstripes. He should get a great ovation when he takes the mound on Wednesday afternoon.

Curiously, Swindal attends Yankees opener

Interesting.


Baseball is Back!!!

Opening Day!

No other sports opening day can compare.
My prediction for today's game is a 5-3 win by the Yanks. I really hope Pavano can get back into form and does well today to initiate that.

In other news, Replacement Level Yankees Weblog has been reformatted. Check it out.

Go Yankees!

MLB Predictions

Season starts next week so here goes:

AL East Winner: Yankees
AL Central Winner: White Sox
Al West Winner: Angels
Wild Card: A's

NL East Winner: Phillies
NL Central Winner: Cubs
NL West Winner: Dodgers
Wild Card: Mets

AL Divisional Playoffs:
Yankees over A's
Angels over White Sox

NL Divisional Playoffs:
Phillies over Cubs
Mets over Dodgers

ALCS:
Yankees over Angels

NLCS:
Phillies over Mets

World Series: Yankees over Phillies


The end.

More About Hughes

Huge prospect Hughes poster boy for the 'new' Yankees

The more you hear about this kid, the more you get excited as a Yankee fan. He won't be in pinstripes until later this year, but everyone will be keeping an eye on him in triple-A all year long.