Ontario Election

The polls suggest that Ontarians are likely not thrilled with the choices available to them on October 6. By the time the writ was dropped this week, the healthy lead that the Conservatives had held was essentially gone and the election was beginning to look like a 3 horse race. Then at the end of the first week a Harris/Decima polls was suggesting that the Ontario Liberals had an 11-point lead over the Conservatives. Now this might be a rogue poll, the sample size was very small, but it no longer looks like a sure thing that Tim Hudak will be Ontario's next Premier.
All through the winter Dalton McGuinty was trailing badly in the polls, but a string of later summer announcements are showing that the Liberals have been holding back. The Liberals have targeted voters that might be harder for Hudak to attract - students, women, new Canadians and seniors. Their promises include tuition grants, bringing back doctors' housecalls, tax credits for hiring immigrants and expanding spots in teachers' college programs. But after 8 years in power the Liberals are carrying some excess luggage. He is presiding over a ballooning deficit. He has introduced new taxes on three occasions (health premium, eco fees, HST) but has attempted to characterize them as something other than taxes. Taxpayers do not like evasiveness.
But what irks me is the growing nanny state. No one wants the government to tell them how to live, like the ban on cell phones while driving or the ban on junk food in school. No one really likes McGuinty who appears cold and aloof. The long list of senior ministers that have left his Cabinet is not a good sign.
Hudak has been labeling McGuinty as the 'Tax Man" for some time. Yet he has been slipping in the polls. When the Liberals proposed tax credits for hiring immigrants, Hudak suggested foreigners were being selected over Canadians. Not sure there is a wedge issue that Hudak doesn't like. His pocketbook issues has been resonating well with voters until Rob Ford stumbled through the summer months. The only politician that had a worse summer was Muammar Gaddafi. The waste in Queens Park that Hudak planned to eliminating began to sound too much live the gravy train that Ford was going to put an end to. Although Hudak is not the Tax Man, he has no plans to eliminate the HST, health premiums or the eco fees.
As for Andrea Horwarth, hardly anyone knows who she is. I think she was expecting a boost on the campaign trail from Jack Layton appearances. She still is getting some benefit from the strong NDP showing in the federal election but will it earn them any seats on October 6. She seems to be throwing out the same pocketbook issues as the Conservatives - lower gas and heating oil prices by eliminating the HST which is not going to help the deficit.

Ontario Election